翻譯研究部

[譯文]中印一體,夢幻組合

時間:2014-7-31 14:54:32  作者:轉載  來源:轉載  查看:2792  評論:0
內容摘要:這些年在經歷了一連串失誤的開局后,莫迪似乎憑借壓倒性的選舉勝利和堅定的政令執行,最終同北京在戰略合作關系層面取得了突破。

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang meets with Indian VicePresident Shri Mohammad Hamid Ansari at the Great Hall of the People in Beijingon June 28, 2014.

2014年6月28日中國國務院總理李克強在北京人民大會堂會見印度副總統穆罕默德哈米德安薩里。
After a number of false starts in recentyears, it seems that India Prime Minister Narendra Modi's landslide electionvictory and a strong mandate have finally opened the way to a broad strategicpartnership between Beijing and New Delhi.
Closer economic and political ties withChina have been an important part of Mr. Modi's election program. He wantsIndia to catch up and compete with China and, in order to do that, he advocatesthe need for "skills, scope and speed."
So far, he seems to have got the speedright. China and India have quickly moved to establish wide-rangingconsultations on bilateral issues. China's Prime Minister Li Keqiang was thefirst foreign leader to place a congratulatory call after Mr. Modi's election,expressing Beijing's desire to set up a "robustpartnership" with India. The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi followedwith a visit to Delhi, and India's Vice President Hamid Ansari made a five-daytrip to China where memoranda were signed about Chinese companies' plans tobuild industrial parks in India.
The China-India summit meeting inFortaleza, Brazil, on July 14, 2014 (on the eve of BRIC's two-day meeting) isthe first in a number of forthcoming summits scheduled for this year. Accordingto Indian media, that first encounter has been quite successful; it lasted 80minutes – double the originally allotted time – prompting the Indian leader totweet that he "had a very fruitful meeting with Chinese President Mr. XiJinping. We discussed a wide range of issues."
The sensitive border and trade problemstopped the agenda. And in a new sign that the two countries are really movingcloser, Mr. Xi invited Mr. Modi to attend the summit of APEC nations (of whichIndia is not a member) next November in China, and to step up the participationin the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where India currently has theobserver status.
Beijing's invitation for India's deeperengagement with the SCO is of particular importance. That is an old ideastrongly advocated by Russia (the SCO's founding member) but, sofar, systematically blocked by China. If, as seems likely, India does becomethe new SCO member during the organization's next summit in Ufa, Russia, inJuly 2015 that would indeed take its relationship with China to the level ofstrategic partnership.

近些年在經歷了一連串失誤的開局后,莫迪似乎憑借壓倒性的選舉勝利和堅定的政令執行,最終同北京在戰略合作關系層面取得了突破。
與中國結合成更緊密政經關系,一直是莫迪先生競選綱領中的重要組成部分。他希望印度能夠與中國競爭并趕超中國,為了實現這點,他倡導要具有“能力,遠見和速度”。
以目前來看,他似乎正有條不紊的一步步去實現。中國與印度在廣泛的雙邊問題協商上進展迅速。莫迪先生當選后,李克強總理是第一時間致電祝賀的外國領導人,同時還表示,北京希望與印度建立一個“堅實的伙伴關系”。
隨后中國外交部長王毅將訪問新德里,印度副總統哈米德安薩里還會對中國進行一個為期5天的訪問,屆時,(雙方)將簽署關于中國公司在印度建設工業園計劃的備忘錄。
中印在2014年7月14日巴西、福塔萊薩舉行的首腦會議,(在為期兩天的“金磚四國”峰會前夕)是今年舉行的首次首腦會議。據印度媒體報道,首次會面相當成功;會議持續了80分鐘–超過預定時間的兩倍–印度領導人在推特上暗示,“他與習主席進行了一場非常富有成果的會談。我們無所不談。”
敏感的邊貿問題提到了議程首項。但新跡象表明兩國確實在逐漸走近。習邀請莫迪先生,出席明年十一月在中國舉行的亞太經合組織首腦會議(印度不是該組織成員),鼓勵他參與上合組織(SCO),目前印度處于該組織觀察員地位。
北京的邀請對于印度深入接觸上合組織特別重要。這個過時的理念是由俄羅斯(上合組織創始成員)策劃推動的,但,到目前為止,卻是由中國主導。明年七月,下屆峰會將在俄羅斯舉行,如果,似乎很可能,印度有望成為上合組織新成員,屆時,印度與中國的關系必定會上升到戰略伙伴關系層面。

Border problems and trade imbalances 

邊境問題與貿易失衡

Serious difficulties in attempting tofind a mutually acceptable settlement for a 2520 miles (4056 km) frontier hasbeen a major stumbling block between the two countries ever since India'sindependence in 1947. Technical discussions have been going on for decades.They will continue. The difference is that these discussions are now coupledwith the leaders' firm pledge to find a peaceful solution.
More important, perhaps, is theagreement not to allow the border issue to stand in the way of closer economicand political ties. These are seen as confidence building measures that shouldfacilitate difficult territorial compromises.
Trade imbalances are also a seriousproblem. The bilateral trade last year came in at $65.47 billion, with India'strade deficit amounting to $31.42 billion. A similar outcome is likely thisyear. According to China's customs data, the trade volume in the first fourmonths is running at an annual rate of $66 billion, and the Indiantrade gap is narrowing to about $20 billion.
Delhi and Beijing agree that this tradeimbalance is "unsustainable." Solutions are sought in greater Chinesedirect investments in India, exports of India's services (mainly tourism) and amore liberal access of Indian pharmaceutical companies to China's market.
In the course of Fortaleza summit, Mr.Xi suggested infrastructure investments in modernizing India's railroads androads. Chinese companies are already working on industrial parks in severallocations.
Interestingly, a number of Indian stateshave been actively promoting their building sites and conditions to Chineseinvestors. That is a huge change compared with often indifferent or evenhostile attitude of Indian local authorities toward foreign direct investmentsin the past. This could be an early sign of Mr. Modi's hands-on managementstyle. He was the chief minister of the state of Gujarat for 12 years. Duringthat time, Gujarat's economy grew at an average annual rate of about 10percent, partly because it actively and successfully courted directinvestments.

印度自1947年獨立以來,對于兩國間最大的絆腳石——2520英里(4056公里)的邊境,一直在艱難地尋找一個雙方都能接受的解決方案。技術性的討論已持續了幾十年,而且還在繼續。與以往不同的是,現在的兩國領導人誓言要和平解決。
更主要的是,也許,這份誓言是想拒絕讓邊境問題干擾(雙方)緊密的政經關系。展現出雙方的信任,有助于在領土難題上作出讓步。
貿易不平衡是另一個嚴重問題。去年雙邊貿易額達到654.7億美元,印度的貿易赤字達314.2億美元。今年還可能是這樣。據中國海關數據統計,以年利率計算,頭四個月貿易額為660億美元,印度貿易差額縮小至約200億美元。
德里和北京均認為這種貿易失衡是“不可持續的”。解決方案只能通過中國直接大力投資印度,出口印度服務業(主要是旅游),讓印度制藥公司更自由的進入中國市場。
在福塔萊薩峰會期間,習建議對印度的鐵路公路投資,進行現代化基建改造。中國企業已經在幾個地區的工業園展開工作。
有趣的是,印度的一些州,一直積極向他們推介建設場地,并為中國投資者創造條件。相比印度當局在過去對外國的直接投資,時常流露出的冷漠甚至敵視的態度,這是一個巨大的改變。這可能是莫迪先生前期養成的事必躬親的管理風格。他在古吉拉特邦當了12年首席部長。在這期間,古吉拉特邦經濟年均增長率達到10%,部分是因為它主動并成功地吸引直接投資。

Stabilizing the economy

穩定經濟

India has also some work to do tobalance the economy. The projected central government's budget deficit of 4.1percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for the current fiscal year willprobably lead to some decline of the consolidated public sectordeficit, which averaged 7.3 percent of GDP over the last three years. Thatwould leave more domestic savings to finance productive investments; it wouldalso decrease India's dependence on foreign fund inflows to support currentconsumption and business capital outlays.
Inflation at 7.3 percent in June is asignificant progress compared to 10 percent a year earlier, but it is still toohigh for a stable and strengthening output the country needs to provide jobsfor an estimated one million people entering labor markets each month.
A stable exchange rate and realshort-term interest rates of 1.3 percent suggest a roughlyneutral monetary policy. As things now stand, there is no need foradditional credit tightening to fight inflation, because a substantial part ofinflation pressures stems from poor infrastructure (apparently one-third offood supplies are spoiled before they reach the market) and weather-relatedproblems. The rainfall has improved in recent weeks, and a normal monsoon seasonis expected next month. That should help the farm output and keep the foodprices down.

為了平衡經濟,印度還要有很多工作要去做。預計中央政府財政赤字占到本年度GDP的4.1%,這將導致一些綜合公共部門開支下降,這些部門在過去的三年里赤字平均占GDP的7.3%。可以讓節省下來的國內資金投入到生產性投資上;它還能減少印度對外國資金流的依賴,維持當前的消耗和企業資本的支出。
六月通脹為7.3%,較比去年同期的10%有著顯著的的進步,但它還是太高,為了穩固產出,國家需要為每月進入勞動力市場的近百萬人提供工作。
一個穩定的匯率和實實在在的1.3%短期利率才能大體實現中性貨幣政策。現在看來,不需要額外的信貸緊縮來對抗通脹,因為通脹壓力的很大一部分來自于糟糕的基礎設施(很明顯,1/3的食品在運進市場前就壞掉了)和天氣相關的問題。最近幾周降雨在逐漸減小,預計到下個月,將恢復正常季風氣候。屆時,天氣會有助于(提高)農產品的產量和保持糧食價格穩定。

nvestment thoughts

謹慎投資

Since the beginning of the year, India'sequity price gains (23.4 percent) are by far the highest in Asia-Pacific andare among the highest in the world.
There is no doubt some "Modieffect" there. Investors correctly see a hopeful beginning of a newadministration determined to tackle the huge developmental challenges thatcould unlock India's enormous growth potential.
Partnership with China can beinstrumental in this task. In particular, Chinese infrastructure investmentscould raise India's economic efficiency and help accelerate the country'sgrowth while relieving upward supply side pressures on costs and prices.
Will that happen? I believe chances arebetter than even that it could. The key reason is that the twocountries seem to have decided to abandon old suspicions and prejudices, andthat they realize that their economic and political interests are now more intune than at any time in recent history.

自今年年初以來,印度的股票價格收益(23.4%)是迄今為止亞太地區最高的,在世界上也是最高的。毫無疑問,是某些“莫迪效應“在起作用。投資者確實看到新政府為解決巨大發展挑戰所展現的決心,這將釋放出印度巨大的發展潛力。
與中國結成伙伴關系,對這項任務將有所助益。特別是,中國的基建投資可以提高印度的經濟效率,有助于加快國力增長,同時還能緩解供應成本(所承擔的)壓力和代價。
這一切會實現嗎?我相信機遇遠優于它所帶來的風險。關鍵是,這兩個國家似乎已經決定摒棄過去所持有的懷疑和偏見,而且他們還認識到,他們(之間的)經濟與政治利益所產生的共鳴,遠比近代歷史上任何時期都強烈。
 



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